Memphis Crime Stats from Local and Federal Agencies Tell Different Stories. Which Is Accurate?

When the Trump administration announced a new federal task force to address crime in Memphis last month, the data it cited immediately raised eyebrows. According to a White House press release, violent crime in the city had risen in 2024 — a claim that didn’t match the numbers published by the Memphis Police Department (MPD).

The MPD, in its own statement, said the opposite was true. “Murder is at a six-year low, aggravated assault is at a five-year low and sexual assault at a twenty-year low,” the department wrote in a September release.

How could both claims — one pointing to a rise in violent crime, the other to a decline — be true?

As it turns out, they can. The discrepancy isn’t the result of political spin alone, but rather a deeper issue in how crime data is defined, collected, and presented at local and federal levels.

Same City, Different Statistics

The confusion largely comes down to two key factors: geography and counting methods.

The White House relied on data from the FBI’s “Crime in the U.S.” report, which covers the entire Memphis metropolitan area — a nine-county region that spans parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The metro area’s population is more than double that of the city of Memphis itself.

By contrast, the MPD only tracks crimes that occur within the city limits.

So when the FBI reports more than 15,000 violent crimes in “Memphis” for 2024, that figure includes suburbs, nearby towns, and counties beyond the city’s borders. Memphis Police data for the same year shows just under 10,000 violent crimes — still a serious number, but one confined to the actual city.

The second distinction involves how crimes are counted. The FBI tallies each victim of a violent crime, while the MPD counts each incident.

For example, a single shooting that injures three people would be logged as three aggravated assaults in FBI data but only one in the city’s records. That difference can make federal totals appear inflated if the definitions aren’t clearly understood.

“Our political leaders need to be really careful on how they talk about crime,” said Dr. Thaddeus Johnson, a senior fellow at the Council on Criminal Justice. “Do they talk about the definitions? Some of that nuance was lost in that conversation, and they put people on edge.”

How Violent Crime Is Defined

Complicating matters further is the lack of a single, universal definition of “violent crime.”

The FBI’s core categories include four main offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. But even that definition doesn’t match how every other agency or researcher measures violence.

Until 2021, the FBI used what was known as the Summary Reporting System (SRS), which logged each incident once, even if multiple victims were involved. It was a simpler, less detailed system that many local agencies used for decades.

In 2021, the bureau transitioned to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), a far more detailed approach that counts each victim separately and records more contextual data.

“NIBRS data is a massive improvement,” said Jacob Kaplan, a professional specialist at Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs and author of Decoding FBI Crime Data. “It has led to an explosion of research that allows a far more detailed analysis of crime.”

That transition, however, means comparing old and new data isn’t always straightforward. Local police departments like Memphis have had to adjust their systems to match the FBI’s standards, often leading to short-term discrepancies.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), another federal agency, uses its own definition of violent crime — one that adds “simple assault,” or attacks without a weapon that result in minor injuries. The BJS also includes crimes never reported to police, based on annual surveys of U.S. households.

The result: one agency’s data can show violent crime rising while another shows it falling, even if both are technically accurate.

Politics and Perception

The mismatch between federal and city crime statistics isn’t new, but it has become a political flashpoint in recent years. Crime data can shape public perception — and that perception, in turn, can influence policy, elections, and public trust in institutions.

For Memphis, the optics matter. The city has long been portrayed as one of America’s most dangerous, a label that city officials and community leaders say oversimplifies complex realities.

While some neighborhoods have seen sharp declines in homicides and assaults, others continue to struggle with chronic gun violence, poverty, and strained police-community relations.

Local advocates argue that oversimplified national narratives can undermine progress. “If people hear that violent crime is up when it’s actually down in the city, it creates fear and damages community confidence,” said one Memphis community organizer. “It makes people think things are getting worse when in some areas, they’re getting better.”

Why These Differences Matter

For everyday residents, the distinction between federal and local data may seem like a technical issue, but experts say it has real-world consequences.

Federal data helps determine where resources, grants, and task forces are deployed. If the FBI’s metro-wide figures suggest a worsening problem, Memphis could become a priority for enforcement efforts — even if city-level data shows progress.

On the other hand, if local numbers understate broader regional challenges, surrounding communities might not receive the attention or funding they need.

Dr. Johnson, who studies policing data, said that understanding these nuances is key to maintaining credibility in public safety discussions. “All of them tell pieces of the truth,” he said. “Read the fine print. Most local websites have the methodology. And it tells you, are they counting by incidents or the number of victimizations?”

He also advises residents to look closely at what’s being compared — the timeframe, the population area, and whether the numbers reflect reported crimes or estimates that include unreported incidents.

“Definitions matter,” Johnson said. “You can’t compare apples to oranges and expect people not to be confused.”

The Takeaway

So which Memphis crime statistic is “right”?

Both — depending on the scope you’re looking at. The FBI’s data paints a broader picture of the metro area, capturing more people, places, and victims. The MPD’s data gives a closer view of what’s happening within city limits.

Neither is inherently misleading, but when used without context — especially in political statements — the numbers can tell very different stories.

Ultimately, as Memphis works to reduce violence and rebuild trust, accuracy and transparency in how crime is reported may be just as important as the numbers themselves.

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