Democrat Abigail Spanberger Takes Nine-Point Lead in Virginia Governor’s Race, Poll Shows

Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is holding a solid lead over Republican challenger Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s high-stakes gubernatorial race, according to a new poll that underscores the state’s role as a national political bellwether.

The Suffolk University survey, released October 23, found that 52% of likely voters support Spanberger, compared to 43% for Earle-Sears, with 3% still undecided. The poll, conducted among 500 likely voters between Oct. 19 and 22, carries a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points — meaning Spanberger’s advantage, while statistically solid, remains within striking distance if late momentum shifts.

This year’s Virginia governor’s race, held on Nov. 4, is being closely watched nationwide as a potential referendum on Republican leadership and an early signal for next year’s midterm elections. The outcome could provide insight into how voters are responding to President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda and to the ongoing federal government shutdown now entering its fourth week.

A State That Sets the Tone

Virginia’s off-year elections have long served as an early political temperature check for the nation. Since 1977, the state has almost always elected a governor from the party opposite the sitting president, a pattern that often foreshadows national midterm trends.

With Republican Glenn Youngkin finishing his single four-year term — Virginia is the only state that prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms — the race to replace him has become one of the most watched contests in the country.

“Virginia’s gubernatorial elections are political weather vanes,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “When voters swing one way or another here, Washington listens.”

Spanberger’s Lead Driven by Women and Independents

The Suffolk poll suggests that Spanberger’s advantage is broad-based, cutting across several key demographic groups.

Among women, she leads by 19 points (57% to 38%). Among independent voters, her margin widens to 25 points, with 57% backing Spanberger and just 32% supporting Earle-Sears.

Spanberger also enjoys overwhelming support from Black voters, who favor her 87% to 9%, a 78-point gap that reflects the Democratic Party’s enduring strength among African American Virginians.

Earle-Sears, meanwhile, retains strong support among white evangelical voters and rural conservatives, the same coalition that propelled Youngkin to victory in 2021. But analysts say that may not be enough to overcome Spanberger’s appeal in suburban and moderate districts.

Spanberger’s Centrist Brand

A former CIA operations officer and three-term congresswoman, Spanberger first made national headlines in 2018 when she flipped Virginia’s 7th Congressional District — a suburban and exurban region once seen as safely Republican. Her success as a moderate Democrat willing to break with her party’s progressive wing helped her win re-election twice, even after the district was redrawn.

“Abigail Spanberger has built her career on bipartisanship and pragmatism,” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. “That’s proving to be an asset in a purple state like Virginia, especially when voters are fatigued by polarization.”

Spanberger has emphasized her record on infrastructure, veterans’ benefits, and public safety, as well as her willingness to challenge both parties on spending and ethics reform. Her campaign slogan, “For Virginia, Not the Party,” seeks to reinforce her independent streak.

At a rally in Charlottesville on Oct. 20, Spanberger told supporters:

“Virginians are tired of dysfunction and division. We want steady leadership, common sense, and a government that actually works.”

Earle-Sears Faces Uphill Battle

Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, currently serving as Virginia’s lieutenant governor, is no political lightweight. A Marine Corps veteran and former delegate, she made history in 2021 as the first Black woman elected to statewide office in Virginia.

Her campaign centers on education reform, parental rights, and cutting taxes — themes that resonated strongly during Youngkin’s 2021 campaign. However, her close alliance with Trump and conservative culture-war issues may be limiting her crossover appeal.

“Earle-Sears has energized the GOP base, but she hasn’t expanded it,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. “In Virginia, statewide races are won in the middle.”

Despite her trailing numbers, Earle-Sears’ team remains optimistic, pointing to early voting data and high turnout among Republican voters in southwest Virginia and the Tidewater region.

“We’re confident that voters want lower taxes, better schools, and more freedom — not big government,” said campaign spokesperson Andrew Green in a statement.

Early Voting and the Shutdown Factor

Early voting began in Virginia on September 19, and according to the Suffolk poll, nearly one in four ballots have already been cast.

The ongoing federal government shutdown, which has led to unpaid federal workers and disrupted services across the D.C. metropolitan area, could also influence the race’s final stretch. Northern Virginia, home to tens of thousands of federal employees and contractors, has traditionally leaned Democratic — and voter frustration with Washington gridlock could bolster Spanberger’s turnout.

“The shutdown is a problem for Republicans,” said Jennifer McClellan, a Democratic strategist. “Voters associate dysfunction with Trump and his allies, and that trickles down to state races.”

Earle-Sears, for her part, has sought to shift blame for the shutdown toward congressional Democrats, echoing White House messaging that accuses them of “refusing to govern responsibly.”

Down-Ballot Dynamics

While Spanberger leads comfortably, other Democrats in Virginia’s statewide races are facing tougher odds.

Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones trails Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by four points (46% to 42%), amid controversy surrounding leaked text messages.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi and Republican John Reid are tied at 44%, according to the same Suffolk poll.

These tighter races suggest that while Spanberger’s personal popularity may be lifting her campaign, Democrats cannot take a broader statewide sweep for granted.

A Historic Milestone Awaits

No matter who wins on Nov. 4, the race will make history: Virginia will elect its first female governor.

Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears have downplayed the gender milestone, focusing instead on policy issues and economic recovery. Yet the symbolism is hard to ignore in a state that was once the heart of the Confederacy and is now a political microcosm of the nation.

“Virginia has come a long way,” said Spanberger at a recent rally. “This campaign is about progress, opportunity, and leadership that reflects all of us.”

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